Nairobi, Kenya – May 13, 2025
Kenya’s government is walking a tightrope as it prepares to table a new finance bill for the 2025/26 budget, proposing tax hikes on digital services and fuel to address a looming budget deficit. Despite assurances from Finance Minister John Mbadi on May 7, 2025, that the budget would avoid major new taxes to prevent a repeat of the deadly 2024 protests, recent leaks suggest the government may be reversing course. With the memory of last year’s violent Gen Z protests still fresh—where over 60 young Kenyans were killed and parliament was stormed—the proposed bill threatens to reignite a youth-led movement that could plunge the country into further unrest. Analysts warn that the government’s fiscal strategy, set against a backdrop of economic hardship and eroded public trust, risks sparking a crisis that could destabilize Kenya’s fragile political and social landscape.
The proposed finance bill, expected to be debated in parliament in the coming weeks, aims to raise an additional 25-30 billion shillings ($195-234 million) through increased taxes on digital services—such as mobile apps, online transactions, and ride-hailing platforms—and a hike in fuel levies. This comes as Kenya grapples with a national debt of approximately $80 billion, equivalent to nearly three-quarters of its GDP, and a budget deficit exacerbated by high borrowing costs and a weakening shilling. President William Ruto has framed such measures as necessary for economic self-sufficiency, a stance he reiterated during a televised address on May 10, 2025, saying, “We cannot keep borrowing to fund our future. Tough choices must be made.” However, the proposed taxes directly impact Kenya’s youth, who form over 60% of the population and rely heavily on the digital economy for livelihoods, from freelance work to e-commerce.
The government’s decision to revisit tax hikes is a stark reversal from Mbadi’s earlier promise, reported by Reuters on May 7, 2025, to avoid new taxes after the 2024 protests forced the withdrawal of a similar finance bill. That bill, which proposed taxes on essentials like bread, cooking oil, and mobile money transfers, ignited nationwide demonstrations led by Kenya’s Gen Z, culminating in the storming of parliament on June 25, 2024. The Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNHCR) documented over 60 deaths, 82 abductions, and hundreds of injuries during those protests, with a BBC Africa Eye documentary, aired on April 28, 2025, exposing security forces’ role in killing unarmed protesters. The fallout saw the resignation of the police chief, the dismissal of most of Ruto’s cabinet, and a temporary retreat from the tax proposals—but not before significant damage to public trust.
Recent developments indicate that the government may not have learned from last year’s unrest. Social media platforms like X are already buzzing with hashtags like #RejectFinanceBill2025 and #RutoMustGo, with users like
@_James041 posting as recently as May 2, 2025, about the need to mobilize against new taxes. A planned demonstration at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, noted by
@trendingblog247 on May 6, 2025, suggests that Kenya’s youth remain organized and ready to act. This echoes the nonpartisan, digitally driven activism of 2024, which transcended Kenya’s traditional ethnic and political divides, uniting young people in a shared fight against economic exclusion.
Economists warn that the proposed taxes could exacerbate Kenya’s cost-of-living crisis, which has already pushed inflation to 6.9% in early 2025, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. Fuel price increases would raise transport costs, impacting everything from food prices to school fees, while taxes on digital services would hit the gig economy hard. Over 40% of Kenyan youth aged 18-35 rely on digital platforms for income, per a 2024 World Bank report, and many fear the new taxes will make their already precarious livelihoods unsustainable. “I earn a living through online graphic design. If they tax my transactions, I’ll barely break even,” said 24-year-old Mercy Wanjiku, a freelancer in Nairobi, reflecting a sentiment shared by many.
The potential fallout from the bill could mirror, or even surpass, the 2024 protests. Last year’s unrest not only resulted in loss of life but also exposed deep fissures between the government and its citizens. A Voice of America report from December 27, 2024, highlighted ongoing abductions of young critics, with 10 reported missing in the weeks prior, and protests against police brutality continuing into late 2024. The High Court’s 2024 ruling against a police ban on demonstrations in Nairobi remains a legal safeguard, but the government’s heavy-handed response in the past—documented by Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch—suggests that any new protests could again turn violent. A January 13, 2025, analysis by Context predicted that youth-led protests across Africa, including Kenya, could intensify in 2025 due to persistent grievances over corruption, high prices, and unemployment, a forecast that now seems prescient.
Politically, Ruto’s administration is on shaky ground. His international engagements, such as mediating peace talks in Sudan and deploying Kenyan police to Haiti, have been overshadowed by domestic discontent. Critics accuse the government of prioritizing optics over substance, pointing to lavish spending on foreign travel while public services like healthcare and education remain underfunded. The 2024 protests forced Ruto to make concessions, but the reintroduction of tax proposals—first in late 2024 and now in 2025—has deepened public distrust. “This government promised to listen, but they’re doing the same thing again. They’re asking for trouble,” said Brian Otieno, a 27-year-old activist who helped coordinate the 2024 protests.
The international community is watching closely. Western embassies, which urged calm during the 2024 protests, may again be forced to intervene if violence erupts. Kenya’s role as a regional economic and diplomatic hub makes stability crucial, but the government’s fiscal strategy risks alienating the very demographic—its youth—that will shape the country’s future. If the finance bill passes without significant concessions, analysts predict a swift and forceful response from Gen Z, potentially leading to mass demonstrations, economic disruptions, and further erosion of Ruto’s legitimacy.